Turkey opened the 2026 World Cup with a 2-0 defeat to Australia at the BC Place Stadium. With two group matches still to play, Turkey will need a result in their next fixture to keep their tournament path open.
Kalshi prices Turkey at an implied probability of 1.0% to lift the 2026 World Cup, putting them in the market’s outsiders band. The path through their group still has the most say in how the tournament unfolds for Turkey.
Turkey have a deep World Cup history relative to the contender band, but recent cycles have not produced the breakthroughs the market would price them above their current odds for.
Group D and the route through the knockouts are mapped on the 2026 World Cup schedule page, with full bracket detail at FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
Turkey’s World Cup 2026 path
| Round | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD1 | 2026-06-14 | Australia | L 2-0 |
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Traders price them at 80% to qualify from Group D, and 37% to win it.
Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices Turkey’s tournament arc as:
| Country | Group Exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 22% | 22% | 29% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Turkey odds to win the World Cup
Unsurprisingly Turkey are the shortest-priced playoff winner when it comes to the 2026 World Cup outright odds with about 100/1 available on the Uefa nation lifting the trophy.
That price reflects Turkey’s position within the middle of the pack. They’re by no means among the favorites, but nor are they rank outsiders in the same category as newcomers Curacao and Haiti.
In many previous iterations of the World Cup, the Crescent-Stars have been considered dark horses and they look set to be tagged as such yet again.
Turkey odds to win Group D
Turkey sit second-favorite in Group D. USA are the heavy market choice. Paraguay and Australia complete the group.
The Polymarket market in the widget below shows the live picture across Group D. The realistic Turkey target is to finish second, qualify through that route or via one of the third-place spots, and a knockout draw they can navigate.
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Turkey stage of elimination odds
There are no odds currently available on Turkey’s stage of elimination, but we will add them here when they come available.
Turkey World Cup top goalscorer odds
Given that Turkey have only recently secured their qualification to the finals, it’s unsurprising that none of their players have been added to the top goalscorer market – yet.
We expect Kerem Akturkoglu, Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz to be added at some point – although none of those forward players will be among the favorites to lift the Golden Boot.
Turkey at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
Turkey are in Group D alongside USA, Paraguay and Australia. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
Turkey play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Vincenzo Montella is Italian and took charge in 2023, bringing experience from Milan, Sevilla and Fiorentina.
Turkey’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +15000 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 1%. Turkey sit in the outsider tier, with squad quality (Çalhanoğlu, Güler) lifting them above other long-absent European sides. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
Turkey finished third at Korea-Japan 2002, the country’s best ever World Cup with the Şükür-Şaş generation. Repeating that in North America is unlikely, but with Çalhanoğlu and Arda Güler as the creative axis, reaching the round of 16 is a realistic target for a nation returning after nearly a quarter-century.